The first two months of the year have already run, and oil has reached around $65 a barrel. It is increasing its price by $10 since the end of last year. There is a critical and pessimistic voice that the price of oil will continue to rise steadily over the $86 mark, the ceiling marked last year, sincerely we are still quite far away.
It is true that Saudi Arabia's export minister, Khalid al-Falih, has just announced that they estimate reducing the volume of daily production to minimums, even below the estimated 11 million barrels per day agreed since the last November agreement. It is therefore estimated that they will leave production at about 9.8m b/d. This decrease would take us to 2011 production levels, and sincerely a lot has occurred since then. To all this, we should add the financial sanctions imposed by the United States on Venezuela besides the supposed US impetus for declining Iran's exports. All this "facts" foreshadowed an upward rally without a stop in the short term on the horizon.
So what are the reasons to remain price-positive?
Despite the specific strategy from OPEC and Russia, to reduce production in order to increase the price, which they are achieving very slowly. One of the main reasons is the increase announced by the US Energy Administration, reaching 12.45m b/d, an increase of around 10% compared to the previous year. This increase is well above the forecast launched a few months ago. To all this, we can add the prediction foreseen by Goldman for the second quarter where it estimates a price of $67.50 a barrel, a projection that gives us signs that even analysts are not clear of a consistent rise.
We will see what 2019 has in store for us, but so far, some ups and downs.